The morning trade balance statistics turned out interesting. In September, the results in Australia turned out better than expected. Export grew by 7% against 2.6% previously. Import dropped to 0% from 4.6% previously.

The statistics could support the Aussie but the pressure from the dollar was stronger.

In the nearest future, the Australian dollar has good chances for remaining negative because the US Fed is serious about further tightening of the credit and monetary policy.

Also, the Chinese statistics will also influence the AUD, and it is very unlikely to be positive.

Yesterday the US Federal Reserve System completed its two-day meeting by lifting the interest rate to 4% annual. This is the high since 2008.

The most important comment made right after the decision was announced touched upon the probability of further increases in the interest rate, much higher that previously expected. While previously the average forecast for 2023 was 4.6%, and everyone kept whining that the economy would not withstand it, the current prediction is about 5%.

The Fed is serious about further tightening of the economic policy. It keeps cutting down on assets on balance. In March, the balance was at the high of 8.9 trillion USD; in June it started falling, and now amounts to 8.7 trillion USD. The CB gradually gives up reinvesting money in bonds with expired term of circulation.

The long-term inflation goal is 2%. However, the risks of the economic forecast remain in force.

No one knows whether there will be a recession or the economy will manage to avoid it.

In fact, for now the economy remains afloat thanks to consumer expenses and the real estate sector; here, however, there are some pessimistic forecasts as well. A decline is near.

The US dollar got support after the Fed’s meeting, which is natural: if the economic policy tightening is in force, the dollar is the primary beneficiary.

Gold has formed a Harami reversal pattern at the support level. Currently, it may go by the signal of the pattern in yet another correctional wave. The goal of the pullback will be 1645.50. Upon testing the resistance level, the price may bounce off it and continues the downtrend. However, the quotes may fall to 1615.00 without a pullback to the resistance level

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at a pullback, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair may go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of growth will be 0.5900. Upon breaking through the resistance level, the pair will have a chance to continue the uptrend. However, a correction to 0.5790 before growth is not excluded.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern. Currently, the pair may go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth will be the resistance level of 1.1580. In case it is broken away, the pair will have a chance to continue the uptrend. At the same time, the price may drop to 1.1310 before continuing growth.

The pair has bounced off 0.9970 downwards. This practically opens a pathway down to 0.9684. After this level is reached, a link of correction to 0.9820 (a test from below) is not excluded. Next, a decline to 0.9565 should follow.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair has completed a wave of correction to 1.1555. Today the market is forming a structure of an impulse of decline to 1.1330. If it is broken away, a pathway to 1.1100 will open.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The pair completed a wave of decline to 145.70. Today the market has performed an impulse of growth to 147.77. At the moment, it is forming a consolidation range under this level. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 149.00 will open. With an escape downwards, the pair may drop to 143.40.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The pair continues forming a consolidation range around 0.9937. Today the market is trying to break this level away upwards. Growth to 1.0144 is expected. After this level is reached, a link of correction to 1.0030 is not excluded.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The pair has completed a structure of decline to 0.6344. Today the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. The wave of growth is likely to continue to 0.6210.

BRENT

Crude oil continues forming a consolidation range around 97.30 without any expressed trend. Practically, a wave of growth is going to stretch to 99.10. After this level is reached, a link of correction to 96.00 is not excluded, followed by growth to 100.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is forming a consolidation range around 1636.60. An escape downwards to 1604.22 is expected. After this level is reached, a wave of growth to 1628.88 should begin, followed by a decline to 1600.00.

S&P 500

The stock index continues developing a wave of decline to 3676.6. After this level is reached, a wave of growth to 3790.0 should begin.

The pair has secured under the resistance level and is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud is expected at 0.9885, followed by falling to 0.9605. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.0010, which will entail further growth to 1.0105. The falling can be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the bullish channel and securing under 0.9705.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is pushing off the lower border of the Triangle pattern, going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud is expected at 1645, followed by falling to 1585. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the Triangle. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1665, which will mean further growth to 1695. The decline can be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the Triangle and securing under 1620.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The pair is correcting inside the bullish channel. It is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 0.5805, followed by growth to 0.6025. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.5695, which will indicate further falling to 0.5605.

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which means the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has bounced off the support line and is going up gradually. Here we expect growth of the quotes to the nearest resistance level of 3/8 (1.0131). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the support level of 2/8 (1.0009) downwards. In this case, the pair may drop to 1/8 (0.9887).

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is broken away. This increases the probability of price growth to 3/8 (1.0131) on H4.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which means a downtrend. The RSI has bounced off the resistance line. Now we expect a test of 0/8 (1625.00), a breakaway, and falling to the support level of -1/8 (1609.38). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of 2/8 (1656.25) upwards. This can make the quotes grow to 3/8 (1671.88).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, increasing the probability of further price falling.

Investors are saving powers before the Federal Reserve System decides anything about the interest rate. The main forecast implies an increase by 75 base points to 4% annual. According to the CME, the probability of such a scenario is 86%.

However, the main attention will be focused on the press conference of the Fed’s head Jerome Powell where he will make forecasts and comments about future steps of the regulator.

We will see how capital markets will behave. Fundamentally, nothing changes for them positively: the price of crediting keeps growing, increasing the load on business. Hence, there are few reasons for optimism. However, this pessimism is predictable and habitual.

To be able to attack 21,500 USD efficiently, the BTC needs to step over 21,150-21,350 USD today. This will open a pathway to 22,500 USD.

Capitalisation of the crypto market today is 1,010 trillion USD; the BTC takes up 38.8% of the market, the ETH – 19%.

Americans want transparent regulations

According to The Harris Poll, at least 79% of questioned Americans think that the crypto industry needs more transparent regulations. This implies clear rules for investors in digital assets. The same poll showed that people still consider traditional money more reliable.

TON sky-rocketed

The TON crypto sprouted, growing by 11% overnight without any obvious reasons. Trade volumes amounted to 20.62 million USD.

Today the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan have been published. It says that the Japanese economy is speeding up, and in the long run the weakness of the yen will augment overseas economic activity.

Monetary politicians are decisive about maximally using the weakness of the JPY: for example, they plan to enhance incoming tourism and keep an eye on salaries increasing them gradually. It is admitted that the weak yen may compromise households and harm the daily life of small businesses.

The document also mentions that the BoJ will announce exit from soft credit and monetary policy as soon as the right moment comes.

There is a risk for the JPY: the head of the BoJ has underlined it several times that there is no need to increase rates or change policy. This means devaluation of the yen may activate any moment.